# Change in net scrap exports outside the EU 2025–2031, EU-27 – effect of Art. 40 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1157 (mean of draws) – EU27, 2025–2031

**-96.50 tys. t Cu**

- Fact ID: `R03-K-EU27-NET-EXPORT-CHANGE-2025-2031-ART40`
- Label (PL): Zmiana wywozu netto złomu poza UE 2025–2031, UE-27 – skutek art. 40 rozporządzenia (UE) 2024/1157 (średnia losowań)
- Value (machine): -96.5
- Unit: tys. t Cu
- Period: 2025–2031
- Area: EU27
- Metal: cu
- Verification: forecast
- Note: Decomposition of the mean change of −152.6 kt (98.3 → −54.3) by model counterfactuals; no interval (difference of means).
- Source: EU copper scrap market forecast 2026–2031 – ai-waw.com model (Bayesian stock model of 27 member states, collection rates, new scrap, CN 7404 grades, market balance; 10,000 draws; AI model ensemble for the nowcast and checks) (class C)
- Publisher: ai-waw.com (calculations); data: Eurostat (Comext, waste statistics), ai-waw.com copper flow balances, company reports, R01, R02
- Forecast: [AIWAW-2026-R03 – Copper scrap market in the European Union member states 2026–2031](https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-copper-scrap-market-2026-2031.md)

Cite: ai-waw.com, AIWAW-2026-R03 v1.1, fact R03-K-EU27-NET-EXPORT-CHANGE-2025-2031-ART40 – https://www.ai-waw.com/prognozy/rynek-zlomu-miedzi-ue-2026-2031