# Forecasts

Production forecasts for 2026–2031 with probability intervals, scenarios, projects and an open model track record. Every number comes from the model file – median and p05–p95 intervals, always with the unit.

The quantities of the two forecasts do not add up: refined copper is the feed for semis production, so adding kt Cu and kt product would count the same metal twice.

## Refined copper production 2026–2031 (AIWAW-2026-R01)

World refined copper production is forecast (median) at 31.81 Mt in 2031, i.e. +1.5% a year on average from 2025 (80% interval: −0.2% to +3.3%), and mine production at 25.03 Mt (+1.3% a year). Most of the bottom-up model's uncertainty is explained by refining (concentrate yield, scrap) and mines outside the register. The 2026 nowcast (Jan–Jul data) is 29,246 kt, against 28,693 kt in the ICSG forecast of 2026-10-14. Refining grows fastest in Africa (+2.9% a year); EU-27 – +1.1%, Oceania – −11.4% a year. The forecast does not constitute investment advice.

- World: refined copper production – compound annual growth 2025–2031: 1.5 %/yr (p10–p90: −0.2–3.3)
- World: copper mine production – compound annual growth 2025–2031: 1.3 %/yr (p10–p90: −0.4–3.0)
- World: secondary refined copper production (from scrap) – compound annual growth 2025–2031: 2.2 %/yr (p10–p90: −0.7–5.2)
- China: refined copper production – compound annual growth 2025–2031: 2.6 %/yr (p10–p90: 0.9–4.4)
- EU-27: refined copper production – compound annual growth 2025–2031: 1.1 %/yr (p10–p90: −1.0–3.3)
- World: refined copper production in 2026 (nowcast): 29,245.8 kt Cu (p10–p90: 28,567.3–29,927.1)
- World: refined copper production in 2031: 31,805.6 kt Cu (p10–p90: 28,731.7–35,324.4)
- World: copper mine production in 2026 (nowcast): 23,334 kt Cu (p10–p90: 22,905.4–23,775.6)
- World: copper mine production in 2031: 25,034.3 kt Cu (p10–p90: 22,624.4–27,742.3)

- Summary: https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/refined-copper-production-2026-2031/summary.md
- Markdown: https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/refined-copper-production-2026-2031.md

## Copper semi-finished products output in the EU 2026–2031 (AIWAW-2026-R02)

Output of copper and copper-alloy semis in the EU-27 (IWCC classification, excluding wire rod) stagnates: the median of the forecast – an equal-weight ensemble of five models (the hybrid demand, trade and plant model and four statistical models) – is 3,946 kt in 2031 (2025: 3,886 kt; +0.3% a year, 80% interval −2.7% to +3.2%). The hybrid model sets the split by country and product, the intervals and the scenarios. Copper semis – 2,670 kt, alloy semis – 1,248 kt; wire rod, the intermediate for wire counted separately – 2,342 kt (2025: 2,282 kt). The 2026 nowcast (STS index NACE 24.44, January–August 2026) – 3,908 kt. 2031 scenarios (medians): accelerated grid build-out 4,054 kt; extra-EU import surge 3,934 kt; closures under high energy costs 3,820 kt; construction recession 3,737 kt – differences from the base of −209 to +108 kt, several times smaller than the base 80% interval (3,293–4,706 kt). The forecast does not constitute investment advice.

- EU-27: copper and copper-alloy semis output (excluding wire rod) – compound annual growth 2025–2031: 0.3 %/yr (p10–p90: −2.7–3.2)
- EU-27: copper wire rod output – compound annual growth 2025–2031: 0.4 %/yr (p10–p90: −2.0–3.0)
- EU-27: copper and copper-alloy semis output (excluding wire rod) in 2026 (nowcast): 3,907.5 kt product (p10–p90: 3,659.1–4,169)
- EU-27: copper and copper-alloy semis output (excluding wire rod) in 2031: 3,946.4 kt product (p10–p90: 3,293–4,706.5)
- EU-27: copper wire rod output in 2031: 2,341.5 kt product (p10–p90: 2,019.3–2,717.8)
- EU-27: copper and copper-alloy semis output (excluding wire rod) – Cu content in 2031: 3,512.7 kt Cu (p10–p90: 2,938.8–4,176.1)

- Summary: https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-copper-semis-production-2026-2031/summary.md
- Markdown: https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-copper-semis-production-2026-2031.md