# Aluminium scrap market in the European Union member states 2026–2031 – Summary

This is a result of the model and its assumptions, not a transaction forecast, and is not meant for planning or pricing transactions. Potential post-consumer scrap collection in the EU-27 rises from 3,433 kt Al in 2025 to 4,208 in 2031 (80% interval: 3,836–4,576). In 98% of 2031 draws the market does not close by price (a boundary solution), so collection with a buyer of 3,591 (80% spread of draws under base assumptions: 3,182–4,018), use and the annual outlet gap of 562 kt Al (variants 170–879) are results of assumptions about routes and the alloy outlet. Net extra-EU exports fall from 522 to 256 kt Al (limit variants 19–453) and after 2028 depend on assumptions about Art. 40 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1157, applying from 21 May 2027. Values are means of 2,000 draws, base scenario.

## Warnings on the result

- **Net exports after 2028 follow from assumptions, not from data.** Art. 40 has not yet operated. Limit variants: 19–453 kt Al, without Art. 40 about 1,141.
- **The −43–586 spread does not cover legal uncertainty.** Computed under base assumptions, not a confidence interval; legal scenarios: −131–477, response of all imports: 326 kt Al.
- **In 98% of 2031 draws the market does not close by price: the result is a boundary solution.** The change in the price ratio after 2027 is an assumed bound, not a market result; even without the bound the market closes in only 10% of draws. Collection with a buyer, use and the gap depend on assumptions about routes and the alloy outlet.
- **The outlet gap of 562 kt Al in 2031 is a result of assumptions, not a market forecast.** Route and assumption variants: 170–879 kt Al. The tonnage goes to a final route, lower collection and a bounded stock.
- **The test on history does not check the 2028–2031 mechanism.** It concerns increments before Art. 40, not levels or the fate of tonnage after the ban.
- **The advantage over the naive forecast is not confirmed.** On average 26.7% better, p = 0.25 with 5 origins; for the 2014 origin the model was worse.
- **For some series the model is weak.** Worse than benchmarks: packaging, end-of-life vehicles (ELV), W062 non-ferrous metal waste. Details in the note.
- **The collection level rests on 2024 balances of weak quality.** The balances are estimates, not measurements; without them the model understated the level in the test.
- **The Art. 41 country list is a draft delegated act.** The result must be recomputed after adoption. A trade measure for aluminium scrap is only a hypothesis.
- **Usable Al, recycling within the same family and downcycling rest on quality assumptions.** Classes, routes and parameters are R04 assumptions, not compared with the text of the standards. Primary metal for dilution depends almost entirely on the assumed cost: 63–1,739 kt.
- **There was no review by a metallurgist or a statistician.** There was only a multi-perspective internal check.
- **Some control computations are indicative.** Some tests and variants do not meet the convergence criterion of the main run.

- Identifier: AIWAW-2026-R04 · version 1.0 · approved · 2026-10-31
- Base year 2025 · nowcast 2026 · forecast 2027–2031
- Author: ai-waw.com · Licence: CC BY-NC 4.0
- The forecast is analytical and informational; it is not investment advice or a financial recommendation and not a forecast of transaction prices. Values are uncertain as described by the intervals and in the methodological note.

> Related forecast: [Copper scrap market in the European Union member states 2026–2031](https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-copper-scrap-market-2026-2031) (AIWAW-2026-R03). Forecasts R03 and R04 concern different metals: tonnages of copper and aluminium scrap must not be added. R04 follows the same series structure but has its own model, units and the mean as its main value.

## At a glance

- EU-27 – post-consumer scrap collection with a buyer in 2031, contained Al: **3,590.7 kt Al** (p10–p90: 3,181.6–4,017.7) – fact R04-K-EU27-SCRAP-OLD-2031 – potential collection 4,208
- EU-27 – new scrap on the market in 2031, contained Al: **1,829.1 kt Al** (p10–p90: 1,574.0–2,085.1) – fact R04-K-EU27-SCRAP-NEW-MARKET-2031
- EU-27 – scrap supply with a buyer in 2031, contained Al: **5,419.7 kt Al** (p10–p90: 4,876.4–5,959.2) – fact R04-K-EU27-SCRAP-SUPPLY-2031
- EU-27 – scrap supply with a buyer in 2031, gross mass: **6,169.8 kt gross** (p10–p90: 5,540.3–6,822.7) – fact R04-K-EU27-GROSS-SUPPLY-2031
- EU-27 – technologically usable Al in 2031, Al in remelted metal: **4,730.0 kt usable Al** (p10–p90: 4,197.3–5,263.8) – fact R04-K-EU27-USEFUL-2031
- EU-27 – net extra-EU exports in 2031, assumption-dependent result, contained Al: **255.6 kt Al** (p10–p90: −42.9–585.9) – fact R04-K-EU27-NET-EXPORT-2031

**Accuracy:** Accuracy was checked on history: for 5 forecast origins (2014–2022) the whole model was re-estimated with the same code as the main result. The test assesses increments before Art. 40, not levels or the 2028–2031 mechanism. It is not fully free of leakage: observations come from before the origin but from the latest Eurostat vintage, the new scrap base contains information from the 2024 balances, the noise form was set after seeing the first three origins, and packaging damping and import drift were chosen after the test. EU-27 net exports: CRPS error 105.4 vs 143.7 kt Al for the naive forecast, improvement 26.7%, Diebold–Mariano test p = 0.25 with 5 origins. The minimum improvement detectable at 80% power is 97%. The 80% interval contained the actual value in 86% of cases for net exports, and intervals too narrow are: packaging 20%, end-of-life vehicles (ELV) 48%. The 5% improvement criterion against the naive forecast is not met by: end-of-life vehicles (ELV) (−14.8%). Losing to the best benchmark: packaging, end-of-life vehicles (ELV), W062 non-ferrous metal waste. History assesses the model before Art. 40, so the blocking mechanism has not been tested against data. The AI ensemble gives only the 2026 nowcast.

**Forecast limitations:**
- Alloy families, routes, classes, m_i, r_i and class values are R04 assumptions; with no metallurgist review the result for recycling within the same family, the strict loop and downcycling is indicative.
- Class composition: ranges from the R04 matrix, peer-reviewed measurement only for Twitch fractions (one batch, USA). Limits are approximations from public sources and margin m is an assumption. Class composition is constant over time, so the model does not forecast stream quality; coatings, Fe from joints, Cr, Ti, Sn and Pb are not tracked.
- Model inflow in 2024 (8,127) is below the balance (9,570 kt Al): a constant scale does not reconcile the inflow history with the end-of-life anchors.
- Capacities from the R04 register: coverage below 70% for extruders, sorting plants and die-casting foundries; the scrap share of nominal capacity is an R04 assumption with a wide range.
- Historical use is an identity (collection + new scrap − net exports, no stock change). In small states the mean is sometimes negative (CY, EE, HR, IE, LT, LV, SK in some years), and the country forecast uses shares, so country values jump at 2025/2026 (e.g. LU, SI, MT). Country values to 2025 are not a measurement of use.
- Intra-EU trade: mirror asymmetries are split by turnover; country balances are approximate.
- The LP works at EU-27 level, with no logistics; objective weights and class values set an order, not prices. The model determines neither prices nor quality premiums. The split of scrap by technology is an input, not a result.
- LP gross trade mass differs from Comext: in 2025 exports 1,314.7 vs 1,277.3 kt gross, because LP classes have a_i different from the CN-code coefficients k.
- Comext CN 7602 does not separate new and post-consumer scrap, nor waste and end-of-waste status; the class split of trade is an assumption, and exports are published only in total.
- Market closure (response of demand, collection, imports and the alloy outlet to the price ratio, the lower ratio bound, the temporary stock ceiling, the final route) consists of R04 assumptions with wide distributions; they have no verification in data, because Art. 40 has not yet operated.
- Hibernation has no national measurement; construction lifetimes are 31.5–60 years; the inflow history of Central and Eastern Europe before 1991 is weak. The ELV stream lies at the upper edge of the bottom-up check, because some vehicles of unknown fate are exported.
- For origins before 2024 the new scrap base and coefficients contain information from the 2024 balances; data are the latest Eurostat vintage, not archived vintages.
- W062 covers non-ferrous metals together, not aluminium alone; a simple stock model has a smaller error here than the model, which casts doubt on the growth of collection in the CD, IW and MSW fractions.
- The light packaging class has only a parameter splitting rigid packaging and laminates, with no separate composition; there are no classes for cables, 2xxx and 7xxx or profiles with thermal breaks; tolling is not a separate row.
- The only control was a multi-perspective internal check (AI agent runs). There was no review by an aluminium metallurgist or a statistician.
- Counterfactuals and scenarios are model results, not causal identification.

- S0 · status P, P-O, PR · Base scenario. 2031: net exports 235 kt Al (1,000 draws).
- S1 · status H · Alloy sorting. 2031 vs S0: net exports +7 kt Al, usable Al +9 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S2a · status P-O, H · UBC: full deposit roll-out. 2031 vs S0: net exports +13 kt Al, usable Al +2 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S2b · status H · UBC: no new deposit systems. 2031 vs S0: net exports −20 kt Al, usable Al −11 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S3a · status P-O, H · Automotive: stronger dismantling and separation. 2031 vs S0: net exports +17 kt Al, usable Al +30 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S3b · status H · Automotive: weaker dismantling and separation. 2031 vs S0: net exports −14 kt Al, usable Al −19 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S3c · status P-O, H · ELV Art. 39: earlier limits on used-vehicle exports. 2031 vs S0: net exports +17 kt Al, usable Al +0 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S3d · status H · Current ELV routes maintained. 2031 vs S0: net exports −17 kt Al, usable Al −24 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S3e · status H · Faster drivetrain electrification. 2031 vs S0: net exports −17 kt Al, usable Al −121 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S4 · status P-K, H · Construction: clean profiles and demolition flows. 2031 vs S0: net exports +21 kt Al, usable Al +23 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S5a · status H · End-of-waste status: lower bound. 2031 vs S0: net exports −192 kt Al, usable Al +42 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S5c · status H · End-of-waste status: upper bound. 2031 vs S0: net exports +168 kt Al, usable Al −33 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S5d · status H · Tightened end-of-waste status. 2031 vs S0: net exports −366 kt Al, usable Al +104 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S5e · status H · Art. 41 list update from 2029. 2031 vs S0: net exports +242 kt Al, usable Al −29 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S5b1 · status H · Return to a trade measure: export duty (hypothesis). 2031 vs S0: net exports −48 kt Al, usable Al +14 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S5b2 · status H · Return to a trade measure: quota (hypothesis). 2031 vs S0: net exports −200 kt Al, usable Al +61 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S6a · status H · Energy: path × 1.5. 2031 vs S0: net exports 0 kt Al, usable Al −1 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S6b · status H · Capacity: all projects in the R04 register. 2031 vs S0: net exports −24 kt Al, usable Al +21 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S6c · status H · Capacity: excluding projects not yet commissioned. 2031 vs S0: net exports +114 kt Al, usable Al −110 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S7 · status PR, H · Decarbonisation: higher scrap demand. 2031 vs S0: net exports −107 kt Al, usable Al +90 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S8a · status H · Recession. 2031 vs S0: net exports +15 kt Al, usable Al −98 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S8b · status H · Growth. 2031 vs S0: net exports −25 kt Al, usable Al +149 kt usable Al. Model result.
- S9 · status H · Quality shock. 2031 vs S0: net exports −34 kt Al, usable Al −66 kt usable Al. Model result.
- cW · status H · Prices: Al path +20%. 2031 vs S0: net exports −21 kt Al, usable Al +13 kt usable Al. Model result.
- cN · status H · Prices: Al path −20%. 2031 vs S0: net exports +25 kt Al, usable Al −15 kt usable Al. Model result.
- cCMO · reference point · Prices: CMO reference point. 2031 vs S0: net exports +11 kt Al, usable Al −8 kt usable Al. Model result.
- k40 · model counterfactual · Model counterfactual: no Art. 40. 2031 vs S0: net exports +907 kt Al, usable Al −229 kt usable Al. Model result.
- k40p · model counterfactual · Model counterfactual: limit without the level cut. 2031 vs S0: net exports +403 kt Al, usable Al −56 kt usable Al. Model result.
- kD4 · model counterfactual · Model counterfactual: no projects in the R04 register (equal to S6c). 2031 vs S0: net exports +114 kt Al, usable Al −110 kt usable Al. Model result.

## Method

Bayesian hierarchical in-use aluminium stock model of 27 member states (Weibull, NUTS), collection rates of six fractions, new scrap in three values, classes K01–K18 and LP allocation to the alloy portfolio of five technologies under concentration limits, CN 7602 trade with Art. 40, end-of-waste status and a price closure, 2026 nowcast from a model ensemble, 2,000 draws with an LP in each, scenarios S0–S9 with legal status and assumption variants.

Full methodological note: https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-aluminium-scrap-market-2026-2031/method
Full forecast: https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-aluminium-scrap-market-2026-2031

## AI note

AI agents were used to retrieve and read documents, check data consistency, write the code and draft the templates of the note, scenario descriptions, figure captions and facts. All forecast numbers are computed by deterministic Python code with fixed seeds; the language model does not enter forecast values, and the note text is produced from templates filled with numbers from the file. Time-series models (Chronos-2, Chronos-Bolt, TimesFM 2.5, LightGBM) run locally and affect only the 2026 nowcast. Control is a multi-perspective internal check (AI agent runs). There was no review by a metallurgist or a statistician. Before publication every version is approved by the publisher ai-waw.com, which holds editorial responsibility.

## How to cite

ai-waw.com, Aluminium scrap market in the European Union member states 2026–2031, AIWAW-2026-R04 v1.0, 31 October 2026 – https://www.ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-aluminium-scrap-market-2026-2031