Non-ferrous metals production forecasts

Forecasts

Production forecasts for 2026–2031 with probability intervals, scenarios, projects and an open model track record. Every number comes from the model file – median and p05–p95 intervals, always with the unit.

Forecasts

AIWAW-2026-R01 · approved · version 1.2 · 17 October 2026

Refined copper production 2026–2031

World refined copper production is forecast (median) at 31.81 Mt in 2031, i.e. +1.5% a year on average from 2025 (80% interval: −0.2% to +3.3%), and mine production at 25.03 Mt (+1.3% a year). Most of the bottom-up model's uncertainty is explained by refining (concentrate yield, scrap) and mines outside the register. The 2026 nowcast (Jan–Jul data) is 29,246 kt, against 28,693 kt in the ICSG forecast of 2026-10-14. Refining grows fastest in Africa (+2.9% a year); EU-27 – +1.1%, Oceania – −11.4% a year. The forecast does not constitute investment advice.

1.5 %/yr: World: refined copper production – compound annual growth 2025–2031 (p10–p90 −0.2–3.3)
1.3 %/yr: World: copper mine production – compound annual growth 2025–2031 (p10–p90 −0.4–3.0)
2.2 %/yr: World: secondary refined copper production (from scrap) – compound annual growth 2025–2031 (p10–p90 −0.7–5.2)

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AIWAW-2026-R02 · approved · version 2.0 · 17 October 2026

Copper semi-finished products output in the EU 2026–2031

Output of copper and copper-alloy semis in the EU-27 (IWCC classification, excluding wire rod) stagnates: the median of the forecast – an equal-weight ensemble of five models (the hybrid demand, trade and plant model and four statistical models) – is 3,946 kt in 2031 (2025: 3,886 kt; +0.3% a year, 80% interval −2.7% to +3.2%). The hybrid model sets the split by country and product, the intervals and the scenarios. Copper semis – 2,670 kt, alloy semis – 1,248 kt; wire rod, the intermediate for wire counted separately – 2,342 kt (2025: 2,282 kt). The 2026 nowcast (STS index NACE 24.44, January–August 2026) – 3,908 kt. 2031 scenarios (medians): accelerated grid build-out 4,054 kt; extra-EU import surge 3,934 kt; closures under high energy costs 3,820 kt; construction recession 3,737 kt – differences from the base of −209 to +108 kt, several times smaller than the base 80% interval (3,293–4,706 kt). The forecast does not constitute investment advice.

0.3 %/yr: EU-27: copper and copper-alloy semis output (excluding wire rod) – compound annual growth 2025–2031 (p10–p90 −2.7–3.2)
0.4 %/yr: EU-27: copper wire rod output – compound annual growth 2025–2031 (p10–p90 −2.0–3.0)
3,907.5 kt product: EU-27: copper and copper-alloy semis output (excluding wire rod) in 2026 (nowcast) (p10–p90 3,659.1–4,169)

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How to read the fan chart

Dark line – data; accent line – forecast median (p50). Bands from the darkest: 50% (p25–p75), 80% (p10–p90) and 90% (p05–p95) probability. The current year is a nowcast – part of the year has already been observed. Intervals of areas and products do not add up. kt = thousand tonnes; kt Cu – copper content, kt product – product mass (including alloys).

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Next forecasts planned: aluminium, zinc.